Last October, after General Motors Corp. rebuffed his proposal to form an alliance, Carlos Ghosn hunkered down to concentrate on the two carmakers he heads, Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co. Both were struggling, as GM executives had pointed out: Nissan's sales and earnings were sliding due to a lull in new model introductions, and Renault was barely profitable.
A year later, Ghosn seemed as confident as ever as he drove Nissan's new flagship, the 480-horsepower GT-R supercar, onto a stage at the Tokyo motor show last month.
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While GM and other car companies are struggling in a deteriorating environment, Nissan is on an upswing. It is now outpacing its major rivals in the U.S. market after rolling out attractive new cars, such as the redesigned Altima and Infiniti G35.
This week, Nissan will unveil a new, sportier Murano crossover at the Los Angeles auto show.
Its French partner Renault also is starting to show the first models of its product offensive, while its low-cost, no-frills Logan car brand is helping Renault break into fast-growing, emerging markets.
Now, Nissan is close to forging a deal in India to develop a $3,000 car for global first-time buyers.
In contrast with the Daimler-Chrysler merger — which was concluded roughly the same time but came apart this year — the Renault-Nissan alliance continues to run smoothly.
“I've never seen an abuse of power — by Renault toward Nissan, or vice versa,” said Gaetan Toulemonde, a Paris-based auto analyst at Deutsche Bank.
Ghosn still hopes to bring a U.S. automaker into the Renault-Nissan alliance, the world's fourth-largest grouping with 5.9 million in annual vehicle sales, though he's not actively seeking one “at the moment,” he told reporters at the Tokyo show.
While GM said it saw no benefit from a three-way alliance, industry analysts say a deal might offer advantages to Ford Motor Co. or newly private Chrysler LLC.
Both automakers could benefit from trading North American production capacity for capacity in other regions of the world, said Patrick O'Keefe of consultants O'Keefe & Associates in Bloomfield Hills.
Ghosn's interest in North America may strengthen Chrysler's hand in talks with overseas automakers such as China's Chery Automobile, O'Keefe said.
But he views Ford as a more likely possibility. “Ford needs a partner — maybe it is Nissan.”
As the U.S. auto industry undergoes a deep transformation, Ghosn's prospects of eventually lining up a North American partner will heavily hinge on the performance of Renault and Nissan.
They both look stronger after two tough years. On Oct. 29, investors drove up Nissan's stock 14 percent on news the Japanese automaker's operating profit margin widened in the second quarter to 8.4 percent from 6.1 percent in the prior three-month period. “The second quarter was the turning point,” said Nikko Citigroup's Tokyo-based analyst Noriyuki Matsushima in Tokyo.
Nissan's rebound reflects its solid gains in the United States, where its sales are up 5.5 percent this year in a weak market.
Similarly, Renault is banking on new models, such as the redesigned Laguna, a car about the size of an Altima, to boost sales in upscale segments where Renault has traditionally struggled.
Available with a clean diesel engine developed jointly by Renault and Nissan, the Laguna unveiled at the Frankfurt auto show in September offers a superior performance than its predecessor — and it cost less to produce. That engine will be offered on the next Nissan Maxima sedan.
Compared with executives at Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., Ghosn has been more skeptical about alternative technologies. He still expresses doubts about the business case for hybrids, although Nissan now sells a gas-electric Altima.
But last month in Tokyo, Ghosn staked out an area where he wants the Renault-Nissan alliance to lead — zero-emission electric cars.
“We see that in large cities, people are against the car,” he said. Incremental fuel savings will not quell growing opposition in urban centers to car pollution.
Nissan is working with technology firm NEC Corp. to develop longer-lasting and smaller batteries. Its Pivo2 electric concept car, shown in Tokyo, featured a compact lithium-ion battery.
“We're entering a period of time where energy is going to be more expensive,” Ghosn said, “and there will be more regulations.”
That means higher costs — and perhaps more reason for automakers to consider alliances.
