The good news for General Motors Corp. has run its course but positive developments stemming from Ford Motor Co.'s massive restructuring are still on the way, according to a Bear Stearns note published on Monday.
Investors reacted to the call by running Ford shares up 6.2% to close at a session high of $7.83. GM bounced back after early weakness to finish up 9 cents at $30.20. So far this year, GM's stock has jumped more than 50% while Ford has remained mostly flat.
“We're buyers of Ford ahead of a potentially material restructuring announcement and sellers of GM as incremental earnings improvement becomes more dependent upon a sales recovery,” Nesvold said, adding that the way to make money on the Big Three is to trade in around the sweeping turnaround efforts.
A 50% dividend cut, a public acknowledgement that initial plans weren't enough and the hiring of restructuring experts all signal that Ford will reemerge with a more aggressive and transparent “Way Forward” plan in September, Nesvold explained.
Last week, Ford vowed to pick up the pace of new vehicle launches and said it may invest up to $1 billion in its home state of Michigan even as it moves to hasten its targeted work-force reductions and cost cuts. See full story.
Ford is now more than half a year into its Way Forward plan, an overhaul aimed at bringing profits by 2008 by eventually shedding 30,000 jobs and shutting 14 manufacturing facilities.
GM's attrition plan, on the other hand, has already exceeded expectations, sparking interest from buyers on Wall Street for most of the year.
Last month, GM increased its structural cost reduction target by $1 billion to $9 billion on a running rate basis by the end of 2006.
But the Detroit automaker still faces potential hurdles in the coming months, including ongoing labor talks with bankrupt supplier Delphi Corp. as well as regulatory red tape that could hold up the sale of a majority stake in its finance unit.
